Financially insecure voters driving current electoral challenges facing the major parties

A new study for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) reveals that those worried about their finances are the voters switching parties. Their support depends on which party can give them the confidence in their own finances to feel secure enough to make plans for the future.

Election experts at the Nuffield Political Research Centre at Oxford University found people in mid-life, who should feel in control of their lives, are the most likely to feel anxious about making ends meet as bills and financial commitments mount. This feeling of personal economic insecurity is driving recent voter volatility and losses of support for Labour since the July 2024 general election.

• Those who feel economically insecure represent 35% of the electorate, around 18.5m potential voters. Feeling more insecure about finances makes it more likely people won’t vote for the Government.
• For the first time it is shown how people aged 35 – 59 are most likely to be part of this group who feel worried about their finances and are more likely to be volatile in their political support. They make up almost 20% of the eligible voting population.
• Feelings of economic insecurity are caused by one or a combination of factors – worries about income, housing and childcare costs, the amount of savings and debt.
• Labour lost votes between June-October 2024 at a greater rate among those who felt economically insecure than those who felt economically secure.

“Never has the support of the major parties in British politics appeared more uncertain,” according to Professor Jane Green who led the work alongside Professor Geoffrey Evans, two of the UK’s foremost experts on voting behaviour, at the University of Oxford. “Financially insecure voters are the ones looking for political alternatives because they can’t see things getting better for themselves or their children,” she added.

Approximately 9 million people in Great Britain are considered economically insecure in this mid-life group, equivalent to around 19% of the eligible British voting population.

The Labour Party had already lost 40% of the voters who put them into power by October 2024 to other parties or an undecided vote, and their support continues to fall in opinion polls. This report finds that the new swing voters identified here are critical to understanding this plummet. Labour lost votes between June-October 2024 at a greater rate among those who felt economically insecure than those who felt economically secure, 46% compared to 31%.

People who felt economically insecure were twice as likely (41%) as people who felt economically secure (20%) to think Labour is handling the economic security of households very badly.

The researchers found people felt economically insecure because of the combination of household economic difficulties and the associated level of financial worries resulting from job prospects, low levels of savings, low levels of disposable income, mortgage costs or other debts. People may feel one or all these things if they said they felt economically insecure.

Among those who report feeling economically insecure, 84% said that the economic security of households was an important policy area for government to focus on and 39% rated it extremely important. While poverty can be measured objectively, economic insecurity is a feeling arising from a broad set of financial circumstances. While feeling anxious about your finances is most common in mid-life, poverty is not.

The study also makes clear that a low income doesn't always result in feelings of financial insecurity. Older people – on average – live on a low income but are far more likely to have assets, savings, a smaller mortgage or fewer or no debts. They also have fewer financial responsibilities to family members.

Younger people were more likely to feel uneasy about their financial wellbeing than the over-60s but not as much as mid-lifers because they're more likely to see family as a support.

Within the mid-life group, people with long-term illnesses or disabilities are much more likely to feel economically insecure, likely because they are unable to work or progress in their career as they would like. They may also struggle to save because of the high costs associated with their condition and inadequate support.

Commenting on this new report from the Nuffield Politics Research Centre and Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Professor of Political Science and British Politics and Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre Jane Green said:

“The fragility of people’s finances, especially in mid-life, is matched with an increasingly fragile electoral landscape. With voters wavering in their party choices in mid-life, and feeling financially insecure, parties need to urgently focus on helping people have economic confidence looking ahead to the next election.

“Financially insecure voters are the ones looking for political alternatives because they can’t see things getting better for themselves or their children. All the talk of culture wars and immigration misses their primary experience. A party that delivers on economic security – supporting people by bringing down costs and giving people a chance to restock their savings safety net - can feel much more secure in their electoral prospects too. Without it we’re likely to see much more political volatility and further electoral fragmentation.”

Professor of the Sociology of Politics and Director of the Centre for Research Methods in the Social Sciences at the University of Oxford Geoffrey Evans, said:

“In our low growth and economically uncertain society, high anxiety mid-lifers are experiencing the worst of it. There is an opportunity available to any party that can soothe the financial fears of people in mid-life as they are more politically available than the young and the old.

“These are the people the Chancellor needs to keep in mind when devising her next budget. Economic insecurity may well prove more damaging to Labour’s electoral prospects than immigration, as it hits home, in the home.”

Director of Policy and Insight at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation Alfie Stirling said:

"This new research provides unprecedented insight into the economic and financial concerns of today’s Britain, and critically, how this evolving picture is helping to explain the changing levels of support for major political parties.

"People want to feel like they have the basic means and security to look after themselves and their loved ones. A significant size of the voting public do not feel they have this security, and this is increasingly looking like one of the big, overlooked factors of our politics.

“The credibility of all political parties in tackling poverty and financial insecurity looks set to be one of the crucial dividing lines of the parliament.”